Good morning Traders,

Friday’s bounce on very light volume is setting up the potential next weak
day.  The challenge with it being Monday is it’s month end.  Last
Thursday’s action showed just how much damage can be caused by one of the FANG
member stocks having a bad day.  Looking through those stocks, if selling
picks up, they’ll likely drive the Qs down to the 128 level – and that’s just
for starters.

Here’s a view of our seasonal charts to gain perspective on the action in the
month ahead – following our standard priority of stocks, bonds, dollar, gold,
oil, and nat gas.

qqq seasonality

bond

US Dollar Seasonality

gold seasonality

oil seasonality

nat gas seasonality

Conditions are right for a correction – stocks are in a seasonal sideways to
weak period through 10/1 and bonds are also in a window where they show seasonal
strength.  One caveat there is the Fed reducing it’s QE bloated balance
sheet.  They technically have t sell enough but not manufacture a
crash.  We could even see bonds go down, with stocks, driving rates
up.  Do you think the economy is ready for that?  Someone always
has to ruin the party.  And this time it’s the Fed.

Add in that gold is in a seasonal strong period and showing strength and that
further supports weak markets.  Oil is a wild card as inventories dry
up.  Oil prices could melt up for a while as the weak dollar makes oil
cheaper around the globe.  Thus the push into international markets over US
markets.

Nat Gas remains difficult to trade.  I’ll do a full review of our
indicators on Nat Gas (it isn’t called the widow maker for nothing) to see if we
can gain some leverage on what’s driving the trade there.  Still looks to
be forming some sort of double bottom and retest of the Feb 2016 lows, which
could make a good trade.

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here:  http://www.stockbarometer.com/cb_dsb.aspx

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

 

 

Good morning Traders,

Friday’s price pattern was a bearish evening star, but we have earnings from
a FANG stock so anything goes today.  Let’s take a look at a 1-3 month
expectations for the Nyse and Nasdaq and then analyze the Nh/Nl data:

Nadsaq 1 month

nyse one month

Nasdaq 3 month

Nyse 3 month

As they say, life is like a box of chocolate and you never know what you’re
going to get.  No one can predict the future, but we use the past to keep
our expectations in check.  When indicators get to these levels, markets
are expected to be flat or lower and more so on a one month basis.  If we
remain in a bull market (as evidenced below) on a 3 month basis, there is rarely
a bad time to buy!

Nasdaq Net New Highs New Lows

Nyse New Highs New Lows

We moved the above two indicators back to 2011, to capture the two most
bearish moves from 2011 and August 2015, January 2016.  These make some of
the best long term buy points – but they’re far and few between.  I do
expect something similar this year as the 2009 Bull Market turns over.

With the Net New Highs/lows at a peak, as the line moves lower, it’s
important to understand that we’re still seeing break outs – just fewer and
these are more likely to collapse and retreat back into the base (from a stock
basis).  In a normal / neutral market, the lines should move on both sides
of the scale.  And in a bear market, for the most part, these lines will
remain below zero.  It takes moves like that to make me more bullish – as
I’m currently bearish and can only see minimal upside and maximum potential
downside for the future.  We remain Short on this retest of the previous
highs on the Qs and are looking for a 3-11% move lower from here.

That means we’ll be out with our top 500 covered calls and top stock PUT
options soon as we get more confirmation of a bearish move.

Regards,

www.stockbarometer.com

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USD Seasonality

For other seasonality charts, click here:

QQQ Seasonality

Gold Seasonality

USD Seasonality

Bond Seasonality

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stock market volatility

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NAAIM stock market timing indicator

The below chart represents the CONSENSUS BULLISH SENTIMENT INDEX OF MARKET OPINION.  This is a gauge of positions and attitudes of major professional brokerage firms and advisors as interpreted and recorded by CONSENSUS, INC.  CONSENSUS identifies the 75 percent level as the overbought level and 25 percent as oversold. CONSENSUS draws from a mix of both brokerage house analysts and independent advisory services, from both contributors and non-contributors.

The data covers a spectrum of approaches to the market, including the fundamental, technical, and cyclical.  CONSENSUS considers only opinions which have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the trading public, and does not consider opinions which brokers or advisors may hold but do not disclose publicly.

Visit our site www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

Consensus Indicator

 

This is one of our 300+ market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

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The below chart represents the positioning of professional money managers.   We’re beginning to see them shift their money to bearish positions.  This is normally a precursor to a sell off.  Visit our site www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

 

NAAIM

This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

To learn more, visit www.stockbarometer.com or sign up for our free newsletter at http://archive.aweber.com/awlist3823220

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The signal from Equity Fund Money Flow – is potentially showing bearish activity for 2017. Subscribe to the Daily Stock Barometer (links below) to find out when to sell the stock market!

Equity Fund Money Flow

To learn more about us, click below:

This is one of our 300 market timing indicators to help traders and investors identify potential buy and sell points.

To learn more, visit www.stockbarometer.com or sign up for our free newsletter at http://archive.aweber.com/awlist3823220

Click here to Visit our Face Book Page and Like Us for our free updates

The stock market follows seasonal patterns. As part of any market timing strategy, you need to understand the forces that act on the market. From ‘go away in May’ to ‘Santa Claus Rally” there are actions that the market takes, year after year that can help keep you positioned correctly into the market. The first 5-7 days of January are also a good indicator on the future of the market.  Also, pension fund rebalancing is significant.  As the market rallies, pension funds have to rebalance (sell stocks) and buy bonds to maintain their target ratio.   Right now, there is an imbalance of bonds to stocks given the rally and stocks will sell off.  2017 also bring some key Euro elections.  And a new US administration.  We’d be a seller of stocks in early 2017!

stock market seasonality

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Hottest Financial Stocks For 2017

The most important thing to know about buying stocks is that you have finite capital and finite time to reach your goal.  So you want to own stocks when they’re going up, and sell them when they stop.  It’s that simple.

That means stock selection is key.  It is not enough to have positive earnings growth, because there are several thousand stocks that trade every day and many of them have good earnings – and a good story.  But not all of them are going up.  So it is even more important that the stock goes up, then it having any earnings at all.

But there are enough stocks out there that are going up and have quality earnings and earnings growth.  This is where your your search starts.

Next consideration is which one to buy.  If you have 5 stocks to chose from, and you have plenty of data to evaluate, you can easily pick by running through the charts.  Mathematically similar to the secretary problem, with 5 picks, you have a 38% chance of being right.  In fact, you could by all 5, and considering randomness and the law of large numbers, you can assume 2 will perform, 2 will fail and one won’t do anything.  That is why proper money management is the key to making money trading.  So whatever you do, use stops, and you’ll live to trade another day.

So, next consideration is market timing.  That means, that every day is not the right day to trade.  So what day is?  There are numerous ways to time the market.  It is something that at www.stockbarometer.com they have built a reputation at being the best and sharing their timing indicators for the every day trader and investor.

Here are 5 stocks to consider for 2017:

IGT – International Game Technology

CYBR – Cyberark Software LTD

M – Morgan Stanley

PANW – Palo Alto Networks Inc

F5 Networks Inc

These stocks have tremendous potential to continue higher into and through 2017.

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